MeritValue

AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

AGIOdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about -13% on invested capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$14.2M2$26.8M3$36.5M3$54M3
Net income$1.6B4−$231.8M5−$352.1M6$673.7M6−$412.8M6
Operating cash flow−$407.3M7−$309.5M8−$296.1M9−$389.8M9−$373M9
Capital expenditure$5.74M10$4.88M11$999,00012$1.69M12$4.32M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$413.1M7−$314.4M8−$297.1M9−$391.5M9−$377.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$203.1M13$139.3M14$88.2M15$76.2M16$89.1M16
Diluted shares60.4M54.8M55.7M57.9M58.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$205.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$71.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$65.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $205.81 of net worth that earned you −$71.2 and generated −$65.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY21 -26%FY22 -19%FY23 -38%FY24 46%FY25 -30%

It earned an average -13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001439222-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001439222-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001439222-26-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001439222-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001439222-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001439222-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001439222-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001439222-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001439222-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001439222-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001439222-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001439222-26-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001439222-23-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001439222-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001439222-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001439222-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)