MeritValue

Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd.

AGCCdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd. earns about 24% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$887,3101$2.54M1$6.21M1
Net income$239,2882$779,2782$609,3822
Operating cash flow−$274,5223−$236,8373−$7.5M3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt—$94,9264$12.5M5
Cash & equivalents$126,2876$54,7527$15.8M7
Diluted shares12.5M12.5M15.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.38
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.86

10 shares is a claim on $6.2 of net worth that earned you $0.38 last year, against $7.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 3y
FY23 22%FY24 40%FY25 9%

It earned an average 24% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 3y

Share count is up 27% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 13076% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$609,382
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050040 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050040 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)