MeritValue

FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP

AGdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 89% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.78 and $17.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$584.1M1$624.2M2$573.8M3$560.6M4$1.26B4
Net income−$4.92M5−$114.3M6−$135.1M7−$101.9M8$164.9M8
Operating cash flow$68.7M9$19M10$55.6M11$152M12$526M12
Capital expenditure$56.6M13$59.7M14$32M15$20M16$62.1M16
Free cash flow (derived)$12.2M9−$40.7M10$23.6M11$131.9M12$463.9M12
Total debt$181.2M17$210.4M18$219.8M19$209.5M19$292.2M19
Cash & equivalents$237.9M20$151.4M21$125.6M22$202.2M22$793.4M22
Diluted shares260.1M274.5M287.1M301.9M491.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.95

10 shares is a claim on $56.2 of net worth that earned you $3.36 and generated $9.44 of cash last year, against $5.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -3%FY23 -10%FY24 -1%FY25 10%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+89% shares · 5y

Share count is up 89% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 61% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.78 and $17.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$131.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$131.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$6.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.86
Base20.0%$9.78
Bull20.0%$9.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008230 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007598 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006602 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001765 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008230 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007598 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006602 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001765 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008230 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007598 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006602 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001765 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008230 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007598 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006602 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001765 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007598 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006602 (Borrowings)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001765 (Borrowings)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007598 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006602 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001765 (CashAndCashEquivalents)