MeritValue

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

AFRMdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Affirm Holdings, Inc. earns about -21% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 114% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$429.4M1$559.2M2$626.9M3$826M3$1.11B3
Net income−$441M4−$707.4M5−$985.3M6−$517.8M6$52.2M6
Operating cash flow−$193.1M7−$162.2M8$12.2M9$450.1M9$793.9M9
Capital expenditure$20.3M10$86.3M11$120.8M12$159.3M12$192.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$213.4M7−$248.5M8−$108.6M9$290.8M9$601.7M9
Total debt———$1.84B13$7.61B14
Cash & equivalents$1.47B15$1.26B16$892M17$1.01B17$1.35B17
Diluted shares159.2M281.7M295.3M309.9M341.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$89.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$223.14

10 shares is a claim on $89.99 of net worth that earned you $1.53 and generated $17.64 of cash last year, against $223.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-21% avg · 5y
FY21 -28%FY22 -38%FY23 -39%FY24 -4%FY25 4%

It earned an average -21% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+114% shares · 5y

Share count is up 114% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 314% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$290.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$290.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$5.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001820953-23-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001820953-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001820953-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001820953-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001820953-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)