MeritValue

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

AFRMdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Affirm Holdings, Inc. earns about -14% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.83 and $8.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$559.2M1$626.9M2$826M3$1.11B3$1.44B3
Net income−$707.4M4−$985.3M5−$517.8M6$52.2M6$1.93B6
Operating cash flow−$162.2M7$12.2M8$450.1M9$793.9M9$1.23B9
Capital expenditure$86.3M10$120.8M11$159.3M12$192.2M12$238.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$248.5M7−$108.6M8$290.8M9$601.7M9$992.6M9
Total debt——$1.84B13$7.61B14$9.79B15
Cash & equivalents$1.26B16$892M17$1.01B18$1.35B18$1.63B18
Diluted shares281.7M295.3M309.9M341.0M348.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$157.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$55.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$280.76

10 shares is a claim on $157.2 of net worth that earned you $55.32 and generated $28.45 of cash last year, against $280.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-14% avg · 5y
FY22 -38%FY23 -39%FY24 -4%FY25 4%FY26 7%

It earned about -14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 433% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.83 and $8.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$601.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$601.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$44.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.23%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.16
Base5.0%$5.83
Bull10.0%$12.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-059279 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-059279 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-059279 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-059279 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2026-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-059279 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001820953-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001820953-25-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-059279 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)