MeritValue

Forafric Global PLC

AFRIdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Forafric Global PLC earns about -16% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.88 and $14.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$261.7M1$283.9M2$302M3$274.2M3$176.5M3
Net income−$7.98M4−$19.1M5−$12.7M6−$24.3M6−$14.9M6
Operating cash flow−$26M7−$57.6M8$33.3M9$23.5M9$356,0009
Capital expenditure$4.83M10$4.47M11$9.49M12$1.78M12$517,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$30.9M7−$62M8$23.8M9$21.7M9−$161,0009
Total debt$49.9M13$30.5M14$44.4M15$35.5M16$52.8M16
Cash & equivalents$14.4M17$24.8M18$24M19$12.2M20$14.3M20
Diluted shares20.6M26.6M26.9M26.9M26.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.53
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$19.62

10 shares is a claim on $2.47 of net worth that earned you −$5.53 and generated −$0.06 of cash last year, against $19.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-16% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -7%FY23 3%FY24 -60%FY25 -19%

It earned about -16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 5y

Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.88 and $14.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$21.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$21.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.09
Base5.0%$12.88
Bull10.0%$16.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017247 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-007838 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023781 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017247 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-007838 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023781 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017247 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-007838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023781 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017247 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-007838 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023781 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-014896 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017247 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-007838 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023781 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-014896 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017247 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-007838 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023781 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)