MeritValue

AFLAC INC

AFLdata completeness 75%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

AFLAC INC earns about 27% on invested capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $85.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$21.6B1$19.1B2$18.7B3$18.9B3$17.2B3
Net income$4.23B4$4.42B5$4.66B6$5.44B6$3.65B6
Operating cash flow$5.05B7$3.88B8$3.19B9$2.71B9$2.56B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$5.05B10$3.94B11$4.31B12$6.23B13$6.25B13
Diluted shares676.7M637.7M598.7M565.0M534.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$551.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$68.17
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $551.34 of net worth that earned you $68.17 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 37%FY22 29%FY23 27%FY24 28%FY25 16%

It earned an average 27% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$85.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.42B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$91.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004977-24-000053 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004977-25-000047 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011402 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004977-24-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004977-25-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011402 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004977-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004977-25-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011402 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004977-23-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004977-24-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004977-25-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011402 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)