MeritValue

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC

AFGdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC earns about 24% on equity, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $110.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.55B1$7.04B2$7.83B3$8.32B3$8.17B3
Net income$2B4$898M5$852M6$887M6$842M6
Operating cash flow$1.71B7$1.15B8$1.97B9$1.15B9$1.53B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.96B10$1.5B11$1.48B12$1.48B13$1.82B13
Cash & equivalents$2.13B14$872M15$1.23B16$1.41B17$1.73B17
Diluted shares85.6M85.3M84.8M83.9M83.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$577.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$100.84
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$217.96

10 shares is a claim on $577.25 of net worth that earned you $100.84 last year, against $217.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
24% avg · 5y
FY21 40%FY22 22%FY23 20%FY24 20%FY25 17%

It earned an average 24% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$110.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$887M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$114.42
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001042046-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001042046-25-000011 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001042046-26-000010 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001042046-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001042046-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001042046-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001042046-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001042046-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001042046-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001042046-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001042046-24-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001042046-25-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001042046-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001042046-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001042046-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001042046-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001042046-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)