MeritValue

Advanced Flower Capital Inc.

AFCGdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. earns about 12% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 61% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$74.7M1$63.9M2$45.7M3$24.6M3
Net income$21M4$35.9M5$21M5$16.8M6−$20.7M6
Operating cash flow$9.54M7$31.3M8$21.2M9$21.6M10$11.2M10
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$109.2M11$140.4M12$90.4M13$103.6M14$38.6M14
Diluted shares13.8M20.0M20.3M20.9M22.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$78.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.28
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $78.79 of net worth that earned you −$9.28 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 21%FY23 12%FY24 20%FY25 -8%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+61% shares · 5y

Share count is up 61% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$9.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822523-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001822523-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014392 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001822523-23-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822523-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014392 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001822523-23-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822523-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001822523-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014392 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001822523-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822523-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001822523-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014392 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)