MeritValue

Affinity Bancshares, Inc.

AFBIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Affinity Bancshares, Inc. earns about 44% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.47 and $31.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$32.5M1$32.1M2$42.7M3$48M4$51M4
Net income$7.57M5$7.13M6$6.45M7$5.44M7$8.33M7
Operating cash flow$11.9M8$7.57M9$7.87M10$6.79M11$11.6M11
Capital expenditure$830,00012$1.39M13$527,00014$422,00015$422,00015
Free cash flow (derived)$11M8$6.18M9$7.35M10$6.37M11$11.2M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$111.8M16$26.3M17$50M18$41.4M19$53.9M19
Diluted shares7.0M6.8M6.6M6.6M6.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.4
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $197.06 of net worth that earned you $12.93 and generated $17.4 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
44% avg · 5y
FY21 109%FY22 10%FY23 26%FY24 32%FY25 43%

It earned about 44% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.47 and $31.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$31.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.0%
  • fcfBase$7.35M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$29.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.0%
  • fcfBase$7.35M
Earnings Power Value
$11.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.13M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $29.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.64
Base6.0%$29.41
Bull11.0%$34.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009519 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034761 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043249 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117734 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009519 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034761 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-161629 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009519 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034761 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043249 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117734 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009519 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034761 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043249 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117734 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009519 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034761 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043249 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117734 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)