MeritValue

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

AESIdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'cash'

The thesis, from the filings

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$172.4M1$482.7M2$614M3$1.06B3$1.1B3
Net income$4.26M4$217M5$105.4M6$59.9M6−$50.3M6
Operating cash flow$21.4M7$206M8$299M9$256.5M9$117.3M9
Capital expenditure$19.4M10$89.6M11$365.5M12$374M12$148.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.99M7$116.4M8−$66.5M9−$117.5M9−$30.9M9
Total debt—$296.2M13$352.8M14$1.03B15$1.18B15
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares—071.0M109.2M122.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$98.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.11
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$96.63

10 shares is a claim on $98.74 of net worth that earned you −$4.11 and generated −$2.53 of cash last year, against $96.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 29%FY23 19%FY24 1%FY25 -4%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 299% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$5.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$59.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021342 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026740 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067145 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021342 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026740 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067145 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021342 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026740 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067145 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021342 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026740 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067145 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021342 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026740 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067145 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)