MeritValue

AES CORP

AESdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

AES CORP earns about 74% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.1B1$12.6B2$12.7B3$12.3B3$12.2B3
Net income−$409M4−$546M5$249M6$1.68B6$910M6
Operating cash flow$1.9B7$2.72B8$3.03B9$2.75B9$4.31B9
Capital expenditure$2.12B10$4.55B11$7.72B12$7.39B12$5.93B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$214M7−$1.84B8−$4.69B9−$4.64B9−$1.62B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$943M13$1.37B14$1.43B15$1.52B16$1.38B16
Diluted shares666.0M668.0M712.0M713.0M714.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.75
Free cash flow it threw off
−$22.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $56.9 of net worth that earned you $12.75 and generated −$22.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
74% avg · 5y
FY21 84%FY22 57%FY23 67%FY24 105%FY25 55%

It earned an average 74% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$249M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874761-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874761-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874761-26-000063 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874761-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874761-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874761-26-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874761-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874761-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874761-26-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874761-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874761-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874761-26-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874761-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874761-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874761-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000874761-26-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)