MeritValue

AerCap Holdings N.V.

AERdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AerCap Holdings N.V. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $123.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.7M1$7.01B2$7.58B3$8B3$8.52B3
Net income$1B4−$726M5$3.14B6$2.1B6$3.75B6
Operating cash flow$3.69B7$5.17B8$5.26B9$5.44B9$5.39B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$50.2B10$46.5B11$46.5B12$45.3B13$43.6B13
Cash & equivalents$1.73B14$1.6B15$1.63B16$1.21B17$1.38B17
Diluted shares149.0M240.5M227.7M194.5M176.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,040.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$212.96
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,473.68

10 shares is a claim on $1,040.41 of net worth that earned you $212.96 last year, against $2,473.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 1%FY23 8%FY24 3%FY25 6%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$123.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.1B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$223.3
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001378789-22-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001378789-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007513 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001378789-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001378789-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007513 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001378789-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001378789-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007513 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001378789-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001378789-24-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001378789-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007513 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001378789-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001378789-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001378789-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007513 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)