MeritValue

AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC

AEOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC earns about 18% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.19 and $86.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$5.01B1$4.99B2$5.26B3$5.33B3$5.55B3
Net income$419.6M4$125.1M5$170M6$329.4M6$192M6
Operating cash flow$303.7M7$406.3M8$580.7M9$476.8M9$456.2M9
Capital expenditure$233.8M10$260.4M11$174.4M12$222.5M12$260.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$69.8M7$145.9M8$406.3M9$254.3M9$195.4M9
Total debt$341M13$8.91M14$015$015$015
Cash & equivalents$434.8M16$170.2M17$354.1M18$309M19$238.9M19
Diluted shares206.5M205.2M196.9M196.4M176.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$96.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $96.12 of net worth that earned you $10.9 and generated $11.09 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY22 32%FY23 9%FY24 12%FY25 22%FY26 13%

It earned about 18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.19 and $86.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$86.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$254.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$254.3M
Earnings Power Value
$11.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$192M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.71
Base20.0%$47.75
Bull20.0%$47.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-032294 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-042746 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-132097 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-032294 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-042746 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-132097 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-032294 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-042746 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-132097 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-032294 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-042746 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-132097 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-007604 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-032294 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-132097 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-007604 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-032294 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-042746 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-132097 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)