MeritValue

ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT HOLDING CORP

AENTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT HOLDING CORP earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.93 and $31.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.42B1—$1.16B2$1.1B3$1.06B3
Net income$28.6M4$2.94M5−$35.4M6$4.58M7$15.1M7
Operating cash flow−$83.6M8−$1.21M9$3.39M10$55.8M11$26.8M11
Capital expenditure$50,00012—$825,00013$183,00014$54,00014
Free cash flow (derived)−$83.6M8—$2.56M10$55.6M11$26.8M11
Total debt$136M15—$133M16$73M16—
Cash & equivalents$1.47M17$17,95618$865,00019$1.13M19$1.24M20
Diluted shares47.5M—48.1M50.8M51.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.24
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $20.23 of net worth that earned you $2.96 and generated $5.24 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 13%FY22 —FY23 -12%FY24 8%FY25 20%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 46% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.93 and $31.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$31.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$26.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$26.8M
Earnings Power Value
$0.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.58M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.52
Base20.0%$17.12
Bull20.0%$17.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002149 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002149 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000458 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002149 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000458 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002149 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002149 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002149 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000458 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)