MeritValue

ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT HOLDING CORP

AENTdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT HOLDING CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.9 and $29.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue—$1.16B1$1.1B2$1.06B3$1.15B3
Net income$2.94M4−$35.4M5$4.58M6$15.1M7$13.1M7
Operating cash flow−$1.21M8$3.39M9$55.8M10$26.8M11−$1.7M11
Capital expenditure—$825,00012$183,00013$54,00014$1.07M14
Free cash flow (derived)—$2.56M9$55.6M10$26.8M11−$2.77M11
Total debt—$133M15$73M15——
Cash & equivalents$17,95616$865,00017$1.13M17$1.24M18$814,00018
Diluted shares—48.1M50.8M51.0M51.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.56
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.54
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $22.84 of net worth that earned you $2.56 and generated −$0.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 -12%FY24 8%FY25 20%FY26 14%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 45% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.9 and $29.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$26.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$26.8M
Earnings Power Value
$0.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.58M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.23%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.17
Base20.0%$16.29
Bull20.0%$16.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001493152-26-042141 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000458 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001493152-26-042141 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000458 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001493152-26-042141 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-012989 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001493152-26-042141 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000458 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-037185 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001493152-26-042141 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)