MeritValue

AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD

AEMdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 104% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.28 and $261.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.87B1$5.74B2$6.63B3$8.29B4$11.9B4
Net income$561.9M5$670.2M6$1.94B7$1.9B8$4.46B8
Operating cash flow$1.35B9$2.1B10$2.6B11$3.96B12$6.82B12
Capital expenditure$897M13$1.54B14$1.65B15$1.82B16$2.42B16
Free cash flow (derived)$448.3M9$558.4M10$947.4M11$2.14B12$4.4B12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$185.8M17$658.6M18$338.6M19$926.4M19$2.87B19
Diluted shares245.0M456.5M497.3M501.7M500.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$494.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$89.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$87.97
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $494.8 of net worth that earned you $89.22 and generated $87.97 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 5%FY23 10%FY24 10%FY25 20%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+104% shares · 5y

Share count is up 104% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.28 and $261.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$261.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.14B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$145.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.14B
Earnings Power Value
$39.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.9B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$99.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $145.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.96
Base20.0%$145.45
Bull20.0%$145.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-037010 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-037982 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-017551 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032153 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-037010 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-037982 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-017551 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032153 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-037010 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-037982 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-017551 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032153 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-037010 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-037982 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-017551 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032153 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-037982 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-017551 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032153 (CashAndCashEquivalents)