MeritValue

ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES INC

AEISdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.66 and $37.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.46B1$1.85B2$1.66B3$1.48B3$1.8B3
Net income$134.7M4$199.7M5$128.3M5$54.2M5$148.4M6
Operating cash flow$140.2M7$183.6M8$208.9M9$130.8M9$233.3M9
Capital expenditure$28.8M10$58.9M11$61M12$56.8M12$107.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$111.4M7$124.7M8$147.9M9$74M9$125.9M9
Total debt$785.5M13$746.5M14$1.83B15$1.13B16$1.14B17
Cash & equivalents$544.4M18$458.8M19$1.04B20$722.1M21$791.2M21
Diluted shares38.4M37.7M37.8M37.8M38.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$353.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$294.04

10 shares is a claim on $353.06 of net worth that earned you $38.45 and generated $32.62 of cash last year, against $294.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 15%FY23 7%FY24 5%FY25 10%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 45% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.66 and $37.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$125.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$125.9M
Earnings Power Value
$35.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$134.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$55.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.3%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.08
Base0.3%$37.73
Bull5.3%$48.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927003-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014731 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927003-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014731 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927003-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014731 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927003-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014731 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001498 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927003-24-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014731 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014731 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001498 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927003-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014731 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)