MeritValue

Alset Inc.

AEIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Alset Inc. earns about -52% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 1427% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.38 and $5.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.8M1$4.48M2$22.1M3$21.1M4$4.47M4
Net income−$119M5−$40.5M6−$58.9M7−$3.97M8−$47.4M8
Operating cash flow−$16.7M9−$31.9M10$7.48M11$5.16M12−$5.93M12
Capital expenditure$227,82113$599,65014$29,10515$102,74916$175,46416
Free cash flow (derived)−$16.9M9−$32.5M10$7.45M11$5.05M12−$6.1M12
Total debt——$156,92617$123,11818—
Cash & equivalents$60.8M19$17.8M20$26.9M21$27.2M22$25.2M22
Diluted shares1.4M6.5M9.0M9.2M21.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.86
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $56.68 of net worth that earned you −$22.2 and generated −$2.86 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-52% avg · 5y
FY21 -107%FY22 -30%FY23 -79%FY24 -6%FY25 -40%

It earned about -52% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1427% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1427% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.38 and $5.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.05M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.05M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.56
Base5.0%$5.38
Bull10.0%$6.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010224 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012509 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001709 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014302 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-008442 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012509 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001709 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014302 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010224 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012509 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001709 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014302 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010224 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012509 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001709 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014302 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012509 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001709 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010224 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012509 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001709 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014302 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)