AEGON LTD.
AEGdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on fileAEGON LTD. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.59 and $9.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.1B1 | $21.3B1 | — | — | — |
| Net income | $1.98B2 | −$570M3 | −$179M4 | $688M4 | $977M4 |
| Operating cash flow | −$1.8B5 | $2.67B6 | $864M7 | $762M7 | $434M7 |
| Capital expenditure | $76M8 | $72M9 | $65M10 | $51M10 | $41M10 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$1.87B5 | $2.6B6 | $799M7 | $711M7 | $393M7 |
| Total debt | $9.66B11 | $4.05B12 | $2.36B13 | $3.01B14 | $1.98B14 |
| Cash & equivalents | $6.89B15 | $8.49B16 | $4.07B16 | $3.47B16 | $2.73B16 |
| Diluted shares | 2.04B | 2.01B | 1.88B | 1.63B | 1.55B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $60.59 of net worth that earned you $6.29 and generated $2.53 of cash last year, against $12.76 of debt.
It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 79% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.59 and $9.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase€711M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase€711M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings€688M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $7.02 |
| Base | 5.0% | $8.61 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $10.5 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-076544 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-076544 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-064638 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124987 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-086614 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-064638 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124987 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-086614 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-064638 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124987 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-076544 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-086614 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-064638 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124987 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-086614 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124987 (CashAndCashEquivalents)