MeritValue

AMEREN CORP

AEEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AMEREN CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $43.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.39B1$7.96B2$7.5B3$7.62B3$8.8B3
Net income$995M4$1.08B5$1.16B6$1.19B6$1.46B6
Operating cash flow$1.66B7$2.26B8$2.56B9$2.76B9$3.35B9
Capital expenditure$3.48B10$3.35B11$3.6B12$4.32B12$4.13B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.82B7−$1.09B8−$1.03B9−$1.56B9−$775M9
Total debt$26.8B13$29.2B14$32.6B15$36.5B16$39.3B16
Cash & equivalents$8M17$10M18$25M19$7M20$13M20
Diluted shares257.6M259.5M263.4M267.4M272.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$492.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$53.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$28.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,442.36

10 shares is a claim on $492.32 of net worth that earned you $53.67 and generated −$28.47 of cash last year, against $1,442.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 47% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$43.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.16B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$76.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001002910-24-000056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001002910-25-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001002910-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001002910-24-000056 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001002910-25-000055 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001002910-26-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001002910-24-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001002910-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001002910-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001002910-24-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001002910-25-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001002910-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001002910-23-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001002910-24-000056 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001002910-25-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001002910-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001002910-23-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001002910-24-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001002910-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001002910-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)