MeritValue

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG

AEBIdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 46% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.02B1$1.09B1$1.53B1
Net income$11.2M2$30.7M2$9.74M2
Operating cash flow$30.1M3$68.8M3$8.97M3
Capital expenditure$11.7M4$13.6M4$14.2M4
Free cash flow (derived)$18.4M3$55.2M3−$5.23M3
Total debt—$799.7M5$1.19B5
Cash & equivalents$42.7M6$65.2M7$98.5M7
Diluted shares40.3M40.4M58.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$138.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.66
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.89
Debt you’d be carrying
$202.42

10 shares is a claim on $138.63 of net worth that earned you $1.66 and generated −$0.89 of cash last year, against $202.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 3y
FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 1%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+46% shares · 3y

Share count is up 46% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 49% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$18.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$18.4M
Earnings Power Value
$1.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019616 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019616 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019616 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019616 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019616 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019616 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019616 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)