MeritValue

Advantage Solutions Inc.

ADVdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Advantage Solutions Inc. earns about -7% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.6B1$3.65B2$3.9B3$3.57B3$3.54B3
Net income$54.5M4−$1.38B5−$63.3M6−$327M6−$227.7M6
Operating cash flow$126M7$104.7M8$228.5M9$93.1M9$61.5M9
Capital expenditure$31.2M10$12.4M11$20.7M12$7.84M12$6.48M12
Free cash flow (derived)$94.8M7$92.4M8$207.8M9$85.3M9$55.1M9
Total debt$4.14B13$4.12B14$3.76B15$3.42B16$3.36B16
Cash & equivalents$164.6M17$118M18$120.8M19$205.2M19$240.9M19
Diluted shares321.0M318.7M323.7M321.5M324.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$103.58

10 shares is a claim on $17.07 of net worth that earned you −$7.02 and generated $1.7 of cash last year, against $103.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -23%FY23 1%FY24 -9%FY25 -6%

It earned an average -7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$85.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$85.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023841 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035151 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088543 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023841 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035151 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088543 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023841 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035151 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088543 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023841 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035151 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088543 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005522 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023841 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035151 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088543 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023841 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035151 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088543 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)