MeritValue

Addus HomeCare Corp

ADUSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Addus HomeCare Corp earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.23 and $76.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$864.5M1$951.1M2$1.06B3$1.15B3$1.42B3
Net income$45.1M4$46M5$62.5M6$73.6M6$95.9M6
Operating cash flow$39.5M7$105.1M8$112.2M9$116.4M9$111.5M9
Capital expenditure$4.65M10$8.3M11$9.45M12$6.05M12$7.72M12
Free cash flow (derived)$34.8M7$96.8M8$102.8M9$110.4M9$103.8M9
Total debt$441.8M13$263.5M14$248.3M15$436.9M16$241.9M16
Cash & equivalents$168.9M17$80M18$64.8M19$98.9M19—
Diluted shares16.1M16.2M16.3M17.4M18.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$590.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$52.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$56.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$131.54

10 shares is a claim on $590.13 of net worth that earned you $52.15 and generated $56.43 of cash last year, against $131.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 6%FY25 8%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 45% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.23 and $76.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$75.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.3%
  • fcfBase$103.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$76.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.3%
  • fcfBase$103.8M
Earnings Power Value
$35.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$83.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $76.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$67.48
Base2.3%$76.19
Bull7.3%$97.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021284 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026747 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005352 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021284 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026747 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005352 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021284 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026747 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005352 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021284 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026747 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005352 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005160 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021284 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026747 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005352 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005160 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021284 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026747 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)