MeritValue

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

ADTNdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. earns about -142% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 64% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.57 and $17.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$563M1$1.03B2$1.15B3$922.7M3$1.08B3
Net income−$8.64M4−$2.04M5−$268.9M6−$459.9M6−$45.7M6
Operating cash flow$3.01M7−$44.2M8−$43M9$103.6M9$129.8M9
Capital expenditure$5.67M10$17.1M11$36.3M12$34.5M12$31.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.66M7−$61.3M8−$79.4M9$69.1M9$98M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$56.6M13$108.6M14$87.2M15$76M16$95.7M16
Diluted shares48.6M62.3M78.4M78.9M79.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.29
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $18.29 of net worth that earned you −$5.73 and generated $12.29 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-142% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -4%FY23 -33%FY24 -653%FY25 -19%

It earned about -142% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+64% shares · 5y

Share count is up 64% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.57 and $17.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$69.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$69.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.58
Base5.0%$16.57
Bull10.0%$20.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032089 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075366 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073878 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032089 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075366 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073878 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032089 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075366 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073878 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032089 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075366 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073878 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-042432 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075366 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073878 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)