MeritValue

ADT Inc.

ADTdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ADT Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.2B1$4.38B2$4.65B3$4.9B3$5.13B3
Net income−$340.8M4$132.7M5$463M6$501.1M6$596M6
Operating cash flow$1.65B7$1.89B8$1.66B9$1.88B9$1.88B9
Capital expenditure$168.2M10$176.7M11$176.4M12$163.8M12$175.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.48B7$1.71B8$1.48B9$1.72B9$1.71B9
Total debt$19.5B13$19.7B14$15.8B15$15.5B16$15.5B16
Cash & equivalents$24.5M17$257.2M18$14.6M19$96.2M19$80.8M19
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 2%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has fallen 21% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001703056-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001703056-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001703056-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001703056-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001703056-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001703056-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001703056-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001703056-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001703056-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001703056-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001703056-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001703056-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001703056-23-000146 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001703056-24-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001703056-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001703056-26-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001703056-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001703056-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001703056-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)