Autodesk, Inc.
ADSKdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
Autodesk, Inc. earns about 39% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $43.26 and $111.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.39B1 | $5.01B2 | $5.5B3 | $6.13B3 | $7.21B3 |
| Net income | $497M4 | $823M5 | $906M6 | $1.11B6 | $1.12B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.53B7 | $2.07B8 | $1.31B9 | $1.61B9 | $2.45B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $56M10 | $40M11 | $31M12 | $40M12 | $43M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.48B7 | $2.03B8 | $1.28B9 | $1.57B9 | $2.41B9 |
| Total debt | $2.65B13 | $2.3B14 | $2.3B15 | $2.3B16 | $2.5B17 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.53B18 | $1.95B19 | $1.89B20 | $1.6B21 | $2.25B21 |
| Diluted shares | 222.0M | 218.0M | 216.0M | 217.0M | 215.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $141.63 of net worth that earned you $52.28 and generated $112.05 of cash last year, against $116.28 of debt.
It earned about 39% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $43.26 and $111.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth2.0%
- fcfBase$1.57B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth2.0%
- fcfBase$1.57B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$906M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $101.59 |
| Base | 2.0% | $111.16 |
| Bull | 7.0% | $137.9 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 2.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000769397-24-000090 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000769397-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000769397-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000769397-24-000090 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000769397-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000769397-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000769397-24-000090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000769397-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000769397-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000769397-24-000090 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000769397-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000769397-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000769397-22-000019 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000769397-23-000036 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000769397-24-000090 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0000769397-25-000019 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2026-01-31 · accession 0000769397-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000769397-23-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000769397-24-000090 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000769397-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0000769397-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)