MeritValue

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp

ADPTdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp earns about -33% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$154.3M1$185.3M2$170.3M3$179M3$277M3
Net income−$207.3M4−$200.2M5−$225.3M6−$159.5M6−$59.5M6
Operating cash flow−$192.7M7−$183.9M8−$156.3M9−$95.2M9−$46M9
Capital expenditure$61.7M10$16.3M11$10.7M12$3.66M12$2.96M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$254.5M7−$200.3M8−$167M9−$98.9M9−$48.9M9
Total debt—$125.4M13$130.7M14$133.3M15$131.2M15
Cash & equivalents$139.1M16$90M17$65.1M18$47.9M19$70.5M19
Diluted shares140.4M142.5M144.4M147.1M151.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.92
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.65

10 shares is a claim on $14.42 of net worth that earned you −$3.92 and generated −$3.23 of cash last year, against $8.65 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-33% avg · 5y
FY21 -35%FY22 -31%FY23 -45%FY24 -41%FY25 -13%

It earned an average -33% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023095 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030913 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076902 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023095 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030913 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076902 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023095 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030913 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076902 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023095 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030913 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076902 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023095 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030913 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076902 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002792 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023095 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030913 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076902 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)