MeritValue

Adient plc

ADNTdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

Adient plc earns about 47% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.23 and $74.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.7B1$14.1B2$15.4B3$14.7B3$14.5B3
Net income$1.11B4−$120M5$205M6$18M6−$281M6
Operating cash flow$260M7$274M8$667M9$543M9$449M9
Capital expenditure$260M10$227M11$252M12$266M12$245M12
Free cash flow (derived)$07$47M8$415M9$277M9$204M9
Total debt$17M13$3M14$2M15$1M16$2M16
Cash & equivalents$1.52B17$947M18$1.11B18$945M18$958M18
Diluted shares95.7M94.8M95.4M90.1M83.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$212.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$33.86
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.24

10 shares is a claim on $212.77 of net worth that earned you −$33.86 and generated $24.58 of cash last year, against $0.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
47% avg · 5y
FY21 158%FY22 11%FY23 38%FY24 20%FY25 9%

It earned about 47% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 88% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.23 and $74.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$74.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$277M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$69.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$277M
Earnings Power Value
$2.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $69.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.57
Base5.0%$69.94
Bull10.0%$83.54

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001670541-23-000153 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001670541-24-000109 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001670541-25-000152 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001670541-23-000153 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001670541-24-000109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001670541-25-000152 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001670541-23-000153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001670541-24-000109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001670541-25-000152 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001670541-23-000153 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001670541-24-000109 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001670541-25-000152 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001670541-22-000118 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001670541-23-000153 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001670541-24-000109 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001670541-25-000152 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001670541-24-000109 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001670541-25-000152 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)