MeritValue

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co

ADMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$85.2B1$27.6B2$25.7B3$24.4B3$25B3
Net income$2.71B4$4.34B5$3.48B6$1.8B6$1.08B6
Operating cash flow$6.6B7$3.48B8$4.46B9$2.79B9$5.45B9
Capital expenditure$1.17B10$1.32B11$1.49B12$1.56B12$1.25B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.43B7$2.16B8$2.97B9$1.23B9$4.2B9
Total debt$18.1B13$17.9B14$16.6B15$18.4B16$16B16
Cash & equivalents$943M17$1.04B18$1.37B19$611M19$1.02B19
Diluted shares566.0M563.0M542.0M493.0M484.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
You’d own
0.0000021%
of the whole company
Your share of last year’s profit
$22.27
Your share of its debt
$331.03
Your share of free cash flow
$86.86
iii. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$162.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$2.97B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$113.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$2.97B
Earnings Power Value
$58.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.71B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

iv. The price question — last, on purpose
What does today’s price assume?
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.78%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $113.28

Default growth 11.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)