MeritValue

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co

ADMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $58 and $157.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$85.2B1$27.6B2$25.7B3$24.4B3$25B3
Net income$2.71B4$4.34B5$3.48B6$1.8B6$1.08B6
Operating cash flow$6.6B7$3.48B8$4.46B9$2.79B9$5.45B9
Capital expenditure$1.17B10$1.32B11$1.49B12$1.56B12$1.25B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.43B7$2.16B8$2.97B9$1.23B9$4.2B9
Total debt$18.1B13$17.9B14$16.6B15$18.4B16$16B16
Cash & equivalents$943M17$1.04B18$1.37B19$611M19$1.02B19
Diluted shares566.0M563.0M542.0M493.0M484.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$469.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$86.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$331.03

10 shares is a claim on $469.83 of net worth that earned you $22.27 and generated $86.86 of cash last year, against $331.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 11%FY23 10%FY24 6%FY25 4%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $58 and $157.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$157.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$2.97B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$109.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$2.97B
Earnings Power Value
$58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.71B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $109.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.55
Base11.2%$109.68
Bull16.2%$141.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007084-24-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007084-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007084-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)