MeritValue

ANALOG DEVICES INC

ADIdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ANALOG DEVICES INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.87 and $258 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.32B1$12B2$12.3B3$9.43B3$11B3
Net income$1.39B4$2.75B5$3.31B6$1.64B6$2.27B6
Operating cash flow$2.74B7$4.48B8$4.82B9$3.85B9$4.81B9
Capital expenditure$343.7M10$699.3M11$1.26B12$730.5M12$533.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.39B7$3.78B8$3.56B9$3.12B9$4.28B9
Total debt$516.7M13$6.55B14$6.95B15$8.53B16$9.04B16
Cash & equivalents$1.98B17$1.47B18$958.1M19$1.99B20$2.5B20
Diluted shares401.3M523.2M506.0M498.7M496.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$680.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$86.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$181.96

10 shares is a claim on $680.8 of net worth that earned you $45.65 and generated $86.14 of cash last year, against $181.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 7%FY23 9%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1649% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.87 and $258 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$258
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.1%
  • fcfBase$3.56B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$169.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.1%
  • fcfBase$3.56B
Earnings Power Value
$46.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.27B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $169.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$87.78
Base14.1%$169.65
Bull19.1%$209.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000006281-23-000203 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000006281-24-000204 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0000006281-25-000153 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000006281-23-000203 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000006281-24-000204 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0000006281-25-000153 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000006281-23-000203 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000006281-24-000204 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0000006281-25-000153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000006281-23-000203 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000006281-24-000204 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0000006281-25-000153 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000006281-22-000250 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000006281-23-000203 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0000006281-24-000204 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0000006281-25-000153 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000006281-22-000250 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000006281-23-000203 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0000006281-24-000204 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0000006281-25-000153 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)