MeritValue

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.

ADGMdata completeness 100%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. earns about -122% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2082% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2025
Revenue$300,0001$02
Net income−$36.6M3−$25.1M4
Operating cash flow−$25.7M5−$19M6
Capital expenditure$333,0007$374,0008
Free cash flow (derived)−$26M5−$19.4M6
Total debt$38.3M9$21M10
Cash & equivalents$1.38M11$17.1M12
Diluted shares759,81416.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.13
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$12.69

10 shares is a claim on $7.48 of net worth that earned you −$15.13 and generated −$11.7 of cash last year, against $12.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-122% avg · 2y
FY23 —FY25 -122%

It earned an average -122% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2082% shares · 2y

Share count is up 2082% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 45% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003849 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002006986-26-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003849 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002006986-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003849 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002006986-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003849 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002006986-26-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003849 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002006986-26-000003 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003849 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002006986-26-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)