MeritValue

AGREE REALTY CORP

ADCdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

AGREE REALTY CORP earns about 3% on equity, but has diluted owners by 66% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$339.1M1$429.6M2$537.4M3$616.8M3$718.2M3
Net income$122.3M4$152.4M5$170M6$189.2M6$204.3M6
Operating cash flow$246.3M7$362.1M8$391.6M9$432M9$504.1M9
Capital expenditure$1.39B10$1.6B11$1.2B12$874.5M12—
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.14B7−$1.24B8−$808.4M9−$442.5M9—
Total debt$1.69B13————
Cash & equivalents$43.3M14$27.8M15$10.9M16$6.4M17$16.3M17
Diluted shares67.1M79.2M95.4M101.9M111.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$563.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.38
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $563.93 of net worth that earned you $18.38 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 3%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned an average 3% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+66% shares · 5y

Share count is up 66% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$15.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$170M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000803 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000917251-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000803 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000917251-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000803 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000917251-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001274 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000803 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-001606 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001274 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000803 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000917251-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)