MeritValue

ARRAY DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INC.

ADdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ARRAY DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.79 and $565.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.04B1$4.08B2$3.81B2$3.67B2$163M3
Net income$155M4$30M5$54.5M6−$39.4M6$48.8M6
Operating cash flow$802M7$832M8$866.9M9$882.5M9$200.8M9
Capital expenditure$724M10$602M11$40.6M12$18.5M12$27.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$78M7$230M8$826.2M9$864M9$173.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$156M13$273M14$150M15$143.7M16$113.4M16
Diluted shares87.0M86.0M86.7M85.6M87.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$294.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.89
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $294.14 of net worth that earned you $5.59 and generated $19.89 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 3%FY23 1%FY24 -2%FY25 7%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.79 and $565.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$565.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$826.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$309.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$826.2M
Earnings Power Value
$5.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$48.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $309.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$136.53
Base20.0%$309.89
Bull20.0%$309.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821130-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821130-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000821130-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821130-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821130-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821130-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821130-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821130-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821130-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821130-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821130-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821130-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821130-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821130-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821130-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000821130-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)