MeritValue

ACV Auctions Inc.

ACVAdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ACV Auctions Inc. earns about -28% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 36% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.22 and $22.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$358.4M1$3.8M2$481.2M3$637.2M3$759.6M3
Net income−$78.2M4−$102.2M5−$75.3M6−$79.7M6−$66.1M6
Operating cash flow$85.3M7−$75.2M8−$17.9M9$65.4M9$78.2M9
Capital expenditure$2.57M10$3.21M11$2.33M12$4.54M12$9.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$82.7M7−$78.4M8−$20.2M9$60.9M9$69.1M9
Total debt$500,00013$75.5M13———
Cash & equivalents$566M14$280.8M15$182.6M16$224.1M17$271.5M17
Diluted shares125.3M157.0M160.0M164.9M170.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.05
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $25.19 of net worth that earned you −$3.88 and generated $4.05 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -28%FY23 -21%FY24 -29%FY25 -32%

It earned about -28% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+36% shares · 5y

Share count is up 36% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 15000% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.22 and $22.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$22.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$60.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$60.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.69
Base20.0%$13.22
Bull20.0%$13.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018066 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001637873-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006439 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001637873-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006439 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001637873-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018066 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006439 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001637873-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005445 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005445 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006439 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001637873-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)