ACTUATE THERAPEUTICS, INC.

ACTUdata completeness 63%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ACTUATE THERAPEUTICS, INC. earns about -13235% on equity, but has diluted owners by 1365% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—
Net income	−$24.7M¹	−$27.3M²	−$22.2M²
Operating cash flow	−$21.6M³	−$21.8M⁴	−$19.2M⁴
Capital expenditure	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$2.96M⁵	$8.64M⁶	$13.2M⁷
Diluted shares	1.4M	8.4M	21.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$3.77

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$10.57

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $3.77 of net worth that earned you −$10.57 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-13235% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 -26189%FY25 -281%

It earned an average -13235% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+1365% shares · 3y

Share count is up 1365% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001581 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002257 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001581 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002257 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002257 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001581 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-002257 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)