ASCENT INDUSTRIES CO.

ACNTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ASCENT INDUSTRIES CO. earns about -8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.93 and $26.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$334.7M1$262M2$193.2M3$80.8M4$74.9M4
Net income$20.2M5$22.1M6−$26.6M7−$13.6M8$867,0008
Operating cash flow$19.1M9$5.58M10$23.1M11$14.7M12−$519,00012
Capital expenditure$1.5M13$3.39M14$2.89M15$1.12M16$1.54M16
Free cash flow (derived)$17.6M9$2.18M10$20.2M11$13.6M12−$2.06M12
Total debt$140.8M17$143.1M18$018$019
Cash & equivalents$2.02M20$1.44M21$1.85M22$16.1M23$57.6M23
Diluted shares9.5M10.4M10.1M10.1M9.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$90.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.9
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.14
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $90.21 of net worth that earned you $0.9 and generated −$2.14 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 5%FY23 -28%FY24 -11%FY25 -15%

It earned about -8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.93 and $26.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$26.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.6M
Earnings Power Value
$0.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$867,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $26.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.07
Base0.0%$26.07
Bull5.0%$30.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000095953-23-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000095953-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000095953-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000095953-26-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000095953-23-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000095953-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000095953-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000095953-26-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000095953-23-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000095953-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000095953-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000095953-26-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000095953-23-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000095953-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000095953-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000095953-26-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000095953-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000095953-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000095953-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000095953-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000095953-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000095953-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000095953-26-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)