MeritValue

ACNB CORP

ACNBdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ACNB CORP earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.77 and $33.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$78.2M1$108.9M2$115.1M3$132.2M3$191.8M3
Net income$27.8M4$35.8M5$31.7M6$31.8M6$37.1M6
Operating cash flow$42.1M7$39.2M8$40.6M9$39.8M9$53.6M9
Capital expenditure$1.58M10$1.81M11$1.17M12$960,00012$1.08M12
Free cash flow (derived)$40.6M7$37.4M8$39.4M9$38.8M9$52.6M9
Total debt$69.9M13$63M14$252.2M15$271.2M16$320.1M16
Cash & equivalents$710.1M17$168.2M18$66M19$47.3M20$65.6M20
Diluted shares8.7M8.6M8.5M8.5M10.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$408.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$311.09

10 shares is a claim on $408.13 of net worth that earned you $36.01 and generated $51.08 of cash last year, against $311.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 27%FY23 8%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 358% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.77 and $33.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$32.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.8%
  • fcfBase$39.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.8%
  • fcfBase$39.4M
Earnings Power Value
$31.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$31.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$57.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.8%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.3
Base1.8%$33.7
Bull6.8%$47.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000715579-23-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000715579-25-000030 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017229 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000715579-23-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000715579-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017229 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000715579-23-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000715579-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017229 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000715579-23-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000715579-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017229 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000715579-23-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000715579-24-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000715579-25-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017229 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000715579-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000715579-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000715579-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017229 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)