AECOM

ACMdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AECOM earns about 39% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.92 and $119.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.3B1$13.1B2$14.4B3$16.1B3$16.1B3
Net income$173.2M4$310.6M5$55.3M6$402.3M6$561.8M6
Operating cash flow$704.7M7$713.6M8$696M9$827.5M9$821.6M9
Capital expenditure$136.3M10$137M11$105.6M12$119.6M12$136.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$568.4M7$576.6M8$590.4M9$707.9M9$684.9M9
Total debt$58.2M13$53.6M14$92.6M15$70M16$70.4M16
Cash & equivalents$1.23B17$1.17B18$1.26B19$1.58B20$1.59B20
Diluted shares149.7M142.7M140.1M136.5M133.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$186.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$42.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.28

10 shares is a claim on $186.98 of net worth that earned you $42.14 and generated $51.38 of cash last year, against $5.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
39% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 24%FY23 4%FY24 84%FY25 73%

It earned about 39% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.92 and $119.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$119.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$684.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$106.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$684.9M
Earnings Power Value
$23.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$310.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.4%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $106.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$83.81
Base6.4%$106.86
Bull11.4%$128.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001104659-23-118329 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000868857-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001104659-23-118329 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000868857-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001104659-23-118329 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000868857-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001104659-23-118329 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000868857-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001104659-22-119637 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001104659-23-118329 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002030 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000868857-25-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001104659-22-119637 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001104659-23-118329 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000868857-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)