MeritValue

AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC

ACLSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $58.26 and $62.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$662.4M1$920M2$1.13B3$1.02B3$839M3
Net income$98.7M4$183.1M5$246.3M6$201M6$120.2M6
Operating cash flow$150.2M7$215.6M8$156.9M9$140.8M9$118.3M9
Capital expenditure$8.72M10$10.7M11$20.7M12$12.2M12$11.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$141.5M7$204.9M8$136.2M9$128.6M9$107M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$294.9M13$185.6M14$167.3M15$123.5M16$145.5M16
Diluted shares34.3M33.5M33.2M32.7M31.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$326.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.79
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $326.73 of net worth that earned you $37.97 and generated $33.79 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 42%FY22 39%FY23 36%FY24 23%FY25 14%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $58.26 and $62.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$58.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$128.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$128.6M
Earnings Power Value
$59.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$183.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$52.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$62.63
Base0.0%$62.63
Bull5.0%$76.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001969 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001855 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020461 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001969 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001855 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020461 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001969 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001855 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020461 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001969 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001855 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020461 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001969 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001855 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020461 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)