MeritValue

ACI WORLDWIDE, INC.

ACIWdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

ACI WORLDWIDE, INC. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.93 and $112.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.37B1$1.42B2$1.45B3$1.59B3$1.76B3
Net income$127.8M4$142.2M5$121.5M6$203.1M6$226.7M6
Operating cash flow$220.5M7$143.4M8$168.5M9$358.7M9$322.8M9
Capital expenditure$20.6M10$13.1M11$8.92M12$15.4M12$12.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$199.9M7$130.3M8$159.6M9$343.3M9$309.9M9
Total debt$2.13B13$2.18B14$2.08B15$1.85B16$1.64B16
Cash & equivalents$122.1M17$125M18$164.2M19$216.4M19$196.5M19
Diluted shares118.6M114.2M108.9M106.5M104.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$144.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$156.02

10 shares is a claim on $144.94 of net worth that earned you $21.63 and generated $29.57 of cash last year, against $156.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 7%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.93 and $112.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$112.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$309.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$66.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$309.9M
Earnings Power Value
$13.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$142.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.7%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $66.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.97
Base15.7%$66.75
Bull20.0%$81.31

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000935036-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000935036-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000935036-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000935036-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000935036-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000935036-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000935036-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000935036-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000935036-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000935036-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000935036-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000935036-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000935036-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000935036-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000935036-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000935036-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000935036-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000935036-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000935036-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)