MeritValue

AMERICAN COASTAL INSURANCE Corp

ACICdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN COASTAL INSURANCE Corp earns about 35% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.9 and $28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$228.7M1$221.7M2$264.4M3$296.7M3$335.4M3
Net income−$57.9M4−$469.9M5$309.9M6$75.7M6$106.8M6
Operating cash flow−$295.4M7−$173.1M8−$136M9$243.5M9$71M9
Capital expenditure$5.27M10$3.05M11$196,00012$22,00012$155,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$300.7M7−$176.2M8−$136.2M9$243.5M9$70.9M9
Total debt$158.6M13$150M14$150M14$150M15$150M16
Cash & equivalents$212M17$229.9M17$171.8M18$137M19$198.8M19
Diluted shares42.9M43.1M44.4M49.4M49.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$63.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.13

10 shares is a claim on $63.79 of net worth that earned you $21.46 and generated $14.24 of cash last year, against $30.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 —FY23 65%FY24 34%FY25 43%

It earned about 35% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.9 and $28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$70.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$70.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
business development company / RIC — reported earnings are dominated by unrealised marks on private holdings, and a RIC must distribute ~90% of income so it cannot retain earnings to compound. Capitalising them would be meaningless, not merely imprecise. Price/NAV is the applicable lens.
Graham Number
not applicable
business development company / RIC — reported earnings are dominated by unrealised marks on private holdings, and a RIC must distribute ~90% of income so it cannot retain earnings to compound. Capitalising them would be meaningless, not merely imprecise. Price/NAV is the applicable lens.

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.05
Base5.0%$25.9
Bull10.0%$31.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401521-24-000024 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401521-25-000032 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401521-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401521-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401521-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401521-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401521-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401521-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401521-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401521-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401521-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401521-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401521-23-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401521-24-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001401521-25-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001401521-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401521-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401521-25-000032 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001401521-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)