Albertsons Companies, Inc.

ACIdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Albertsons Companies, Inc. earns about 75% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.53 and $24.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$71.9B1$77.6B2$79.2B3$80.4B3$83.2B3
Net income$1.62B4$1.51B5$1.3B6$958.6M6$217.4M6
Operating cash flow$3.51B7$2.85B8$2.66B9$2.68B9$2.37B9
Capital expenditure$1.61B10$2.15B11$2.03B12$1.93B12$1.84B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.91B7$700M8$628.2M9$749.4M9$527.3M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$2.9B13$455.8M14$188.7M15$293.6M16$198.6M16
Diluted shares475.3M534.0M581.1M583.8M547.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$33.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.64
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $33.56 of net worth that earned you $3.97 and generated $9.64 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
75% avg · 5y
FY22 FY23 158%FY24 65%FY25 42%FY26 36%

It earned about 75% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.53 and $24.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$628.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$628.2M
Earnings Power Value
$24.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.77
Base0.0%$16.77
Bull5.0%$20.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-26 · accession 0001646972-24-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-25 · accession 0001646972-25-000052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-24 · accession 0001646972-26-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-26 · accession 0001646972-24-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-25 · accession 0001646972-25-000052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-24 · accession 0001646972-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-26 · accession 0001646972-24-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-25 · accession 0001646972-25-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-24 · accession 0001646972-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-26 · accession 0001646972-24-000060 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-25 · accession 0001646972-25-000052 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-24 · accession 0001646972-26-000032 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-26 · accession 0001646972-23-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-25 · accession 0001646972-24-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-24 · accession 0001646972-25-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-22 · accession 0001646972-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)