MeritValue

ACHIEVE LIFE SCIENCES, INC.

ACHVdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ACHIEVE LIFE SCIENCES, INC. earns about -268% on equity, but has diluted owners by 437% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$33.2M1−$42.4M2−$29.8M3−$39.8M3−$54.6M3
Operating cash flow−$29.4M4−$37.6M5−$24.5M6−$29.8M6−$49.5M6
Capital expenditure——$21,0007—$3,0007
Free cash flow (derived)——−$24.5M6—−$49.5M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$43M8$24.8M9$15.5M10$12.8M11$20.9M11
Diluted shares8.1M10.6M19.8M32.1M43.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.54
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.35
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $4.94 of net worth that earned you −$12.54 and generated −$11.35 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-268% avg · 5y
FY21 -118%FY22 -510%FY23 —FY24 -191%FY25 -254%

It earned an average -268% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+437% shares · 5y

Share count is up 437% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036831 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120690 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036831 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120690 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120690 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-003800 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036831 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120690 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)