MeritValue

Archer Aviation Inc.

ACHRdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Archer Aviation Inc. earns about -338% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 463% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$01$01$300,0001
Net income−$347.8M2−$317.3M3−$457.9M4−$536.8M4−$618.2M4
Operating cash flow−$108.4M5−$200.4M6−$271.6M7−$368.6M7−$432.9M7
Capital expenditure$3.5M8$6.9M9$44.3M10$82M10$78.8M10
Free cash flow (derived)−$111.9M5−$207.3M6−$315.9M7−$450.6M7−$511.7M7
Total debt$37.6M11$18.6M12$14.4M13$128M14$160.6M14
Cash & equivalents$746.6M15$69.4M16$464.6M17$834.5M18$1.02B18
Diluted shares110.8M240.5M270.4M376.7M624.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.9
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.2
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.57

10 shares is a claim on $35.28 of net worth that earned you −$9.9 and generated −$8.2 of cash last year, against $2.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-338% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -57%FY23 —FY24 -920%FY25 -36%

It earned an average -338% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+463% shares · 5y

Share count is up 463% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 327% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001824502-26-000019 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007963 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008823 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001824502-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007963 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008823 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001824502-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007963 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008823 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001824502-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008091 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007963 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008823 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001824502-26-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007963 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008823 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001824502-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)