MeritValue

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

ACHCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.31B1$2.61B2$2.93B3$3.15B3$3.31B3
Net income$190.6M4$273.1M5−$21.7M6$255.6M6−$1.1B6
Operating cash flow$374.5M7$380.6M8$462.3M9$129.7M9$131.9M9
Capital expenditure$244.8M10$296.1M11$424.1M12$690.4M12$571.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$129.7M7$84.4M8$38.2M9−$560.7M9−$439.9M9
Total debt$2.99B13$2.77B14$2.74B15$3.91B16$5B16
Cash & equivalents$133.8M17$97.6M18$100.1M19$76.3M20$133.2M20
Diluted shares90.8M91.6M90.9M92.1M90.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$214.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$121.58
Free cash flow it threw off
−$48.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$551.23

10 shares is a claim on $214.87 of net worth that earned you −$121.58 and generated −$48.5 of cash last year, against $551.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 4%FY23 -2%FY24 3%FY25 -14%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 67% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$21.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$190.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029095 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078266 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029095 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078266 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029095 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078266 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029095 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078266 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002737 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022057 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029095 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078266 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002737 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029095 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078266 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)