MeritValue

Associated Capital Group, Inc.

ACGPdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Associated Capital Group, Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$19M1$20.9M2$15.2M3$12.7M4$13.2M4
Net income$18.8M5$59.2M6−$48.9M7$37.5M8$44.3M8
Operating cash flow−$279.5M9$238.2M10−$70.6M11$145.1M12$26.9M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$39.5M13$319M14$218.5M15$317.5M16$299.6M16
Diluted shares22.4M22.1M22,02421.8M21.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$418.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.77
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $418.19 of net worth that earned you $20.77 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY20 2%FY21 10%FY22 -7%FY23 6%FY24 7%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$18.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$37.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-009943 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006786 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008882 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008454 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-009943 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006786 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008882 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008454 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-009943 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006786 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008882 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008454 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-009943 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006786 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008882 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008454 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)