MeritValue

Accel Entertainment, Inc.

ACELdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Accel Entertainment, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$734.7M1$969.8M2$1.17B3$1.23B3$1.33B3
Net income$31.6M4$74.1M5$45.6M6$35.3M6$51.5M6
Operating cash flow$110.8M7$108M8$132.5M9$121.2M9$150.9M9
Capital expenditure$29.8M10$47.4M11$81.7M12$66.5M12$88.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$81M7$60.6M8$50.8M9$54.7M9$62M9
Total debt$683M13$1.08B14$1.09B15$1.19B16$1.21B16
Cash & equivalents$198.8M17$224.1M18$261.6M19$281.3M20$296.6M20
Diluted shares94.6M91.2M86.8M85.0M86.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$31.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.17
Debt you’d be carrying
$140.66

10 shares is a claim on $31.23 of net worth that earned you $5.96 and generated $7.17 of cash last year, against $140.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 7%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 78% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$54.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$54.7M
Earnings Power Value
$5.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$45.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698991-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698991-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698991-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698991-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698991-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698991-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698991-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698991-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698991-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698991-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698991-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698991-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698991-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698991-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698991-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001698991-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698991-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698991-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698991-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001698991-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)