MeritValue

ProFrac Holding Corp.

ACDCdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

ProFrac Holding Corp. earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 278% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.81 and $1.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$768.4M1$2.43B2$2.63B3$2.19B3$1.94B3
Net income−$42.4M4$91.5M5−$97.7M6−$215.1M6−$369M6
Operating cash flow$43.9M7$415.2M8$553.5M9$367.3M9$189.5M9
Capital expenditure$87.4M10$356.2M11$267M12$255M12$169.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$43.5M7$59M8$286.5M9$112.3M9$19.6M9
Total debt$536.7M13$1.66B14$1.99B15$2.04B16$1.85B16
Cash & equivalents$5.4M17$35.1M18$25.3M19$14.8M20$22.9M20
Diluted shares—44.5M130.9M159.9M168.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$21.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$110.1

10 shares is a claim on $42.63 of net worth that earned you −$21.93 and generated $1.16 of cash last year, against $110.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 91%FY23 2%FY24 -2%FY25 -7%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+278% shares · 5y

Share count is up 278% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 245% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.81 and $1.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$112.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$112.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$1.47
Base5.0%$0.81
Bull10.0%$3.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032170 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036251 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-106120 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044411 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036251 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-106120 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032170 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036251 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-106120 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032170 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036251 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-106120 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010960 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032170 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036251 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-106120 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010960 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032170 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036251 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-106120 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)