MeritValue

ACCO BRANDS Corp

ACCOdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ACCO BRANDS Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.07 and $12.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.03B1$1.95B2$1.83B3$1.67B3$1.52B3
Net income$101.9M4−$13.2M5−$21.8M6−$101.6M6$41.3M6
Operating cash flow$159.6M7$77.6M8$128.7M9$148.2M9$68.7M9
Capital expenditure$21.2M10$17.7M10———
Free cash flow (derived)$138.4M7$59.9M8———
Total debt$1.03B11$1.05B12$955.4M13$875.4M14$867.6M14
Cash & equivalents$41.2M15$62.2M16$66.4M16$74.1M16$64.4M16
Diluted shares97.1M95.3M95.3M95.6M94.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$70.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.39
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$92.3

10 shares is a claim on $70.7 of net worth that earned you $4.39 last year, against $92.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 -2%FY25 5%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.07 and $12.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$103.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$103.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.25
Base5.0%$11.07
Bull10.0%$15.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019211 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024931 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098616 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019211 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024931 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098616 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019211 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024931 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098616 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004360 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004360 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019211 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024931 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098616 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712034-22-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098616 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)