MeritValue

ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC

ACADdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC earns about -8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 105773% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.03 and $12.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$484.1M1$517.2M2$726.4M3$957.8M3$1.07B3
Net income−$167.9M4−$216M5−$61.3M6$226.5M6$391M6
Operating cash flow−$125.7M7−$114M8$16.7M9$157.7M9$109.8M9
Capital expenditure$1.12M10$011$50,00012$523,00012$4.69M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$126.8M7−$114M8$16.7M9$157.2M9$105.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$147.4M13$114.8M14$188.7M15$319.6M15$177.7M15
Diluted shares160,493161.7M163.8M166.4M169.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$72.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.19
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $72.23 of net worth that earned you $23.01 and generated $6.19 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 -59%FY23 -17%FY24 55%FY25 13%

It earned about -8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+105773% shares · 5y

Share count is up 105773% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.03 and $12.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$105.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$105.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$19.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.89
Base5.0%$12.03
Bull10.0%$14.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021473 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029253 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072519 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021473 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029253 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072519 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021473 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029253 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072519 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021473 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029253 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072519 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021473 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029253 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072519 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)