Arcosa, Inc.
ACAdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Arcosa, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.67 and $217.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.04B1 | $2.24B2 | $2.31B3 | $2.57B3 | $2.88B3 |
| Net income | $69.6M4 | $245.8M5 | $159.2M6 | $93.7M6 | $208.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $166.5M7 | $174.3M8 | $261M9 | $502M9 | $341.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $85.1M10 | $138M11 | $203.5M12 | $189.7M12 | $165.6M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $81.4M7 | $36.3M8 | $57.5M9 | $312.3M9 | $175.5M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $72.9M13 | $160.4M14 | $104.8M15 | $187.3M16 | $214.6M16 |
| Diluted shares | 48.6M | 48.5M | 48.7M | 48.8M | 49.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $539.06 of net worth that earned you $42.53 and generated $35.82 of cash last year.
It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.67 and $217.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$175.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$175.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$159.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $55.55 |
| Base | 20.0% | $121.15 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $121.15 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739445-24-000012 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739445-25-000026 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739445-26-000029 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739445-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739445-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739445-26-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739445-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739445-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739445-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739445-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739445-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739445-26-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739445-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739445-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739445-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001739445-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)